Book From 1987, Regarding Not Enough White Babies Being Born
WARNING ON BIRTHS PROVOKES DISSENT
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Baronial 23, 1987
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A new book warning that a turn down in the nascence charge per unit in the industrial world volition be accompanied by a decrease in the global influence of Western democratic culture has provoked heated criticism, specially from groups advocating population control.
The volume, ''The Birth Dearth,'' is by Ben J. Wattenberg, a Democrat frequently critical of his party as being too liberal. He is the author of a number of popular books on political, economic and cultural trends. The new work warns that failing fertility in the adult nations while population growth rates are soaring in the developing globe volition weaken the political, military and cultural position of industrial countries because they will constitute a smaller fraction of the global population.
Mr. Wattenberg urges, therefore, that the United States and other industrial countries adopt policies to encourage couples to have children. These policies would include paid maternal go out, paid day care and tax incentives.
Groups advocating population control contend that, a recommendation for college nascence rates is not needed in a world expected to grow by still another billion people before babies now being born graduate from high school. Furthermore, some critics of Mr. Wattenberg's theories say they are tinged with racism. Some Praise for Book
But the volume has also drawn praise from commentators who believe the consequence of declining population in industrial countries has non been fairly examined.
Mr. Wattenberg and others who hold similar views contend that the reject of fertility rates in North America, Western Europe, Nippon, Australia and New Zealand means that the populations of those countries volition decrease over the long run as populations in many poorer countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America increase.
They fence that over the adjacent century these trends will produce damaging economic and social consequences for the United states. As the number of consumers and workers drops and as a smaller working population bears the burden of maintaining a Social Security program for a growing number of the elderly, social strains volition increase, the argument goes.
The population debate has been going on at least since 1798, when Thomas Malthus published ''An Essay on the Principle of Population,'' in which he argued that poverty is unavoidable because the population increases geometrically while food supplies increase arithmetically. 'Something Racist' Discerned
Lester Brown, president of the Worldwatch Constitute, a Washington-based nonprofit organisation engaged in inquiry on global resources and environmental issues, asserted that ''there is something racist'' in Mr. Wattenberg'due south concern with the contrasting fertility rates in the industrialized and developing countries.
Mr. Wattenberg rejected the contention and noted that he had included Japan amidst industrial countries at chance considering of demographic trends. He said he believed that Western values needed to be defended because they were the values of ''prosperity and freedom.''
The thesis that lower birth rates would reduce the military and political influence of the Due west was challenged past L. Rupert Cutler, executive managing director of Population-Environment Rest, a Washington-based nonprofit group. He pointed out that countries like Greece in archetype times and England in the 19th century were earth powers despite relatively small populations.
Martin O'Connell, chief of fertility statistics for the Agency of the Census, said that while the data used by Mr. Wattenberg to argue his instance were authentic, they were non significant when projected over 75 to 100 years, as they are in the book. No Long-Range Bets Taken
''Any demographer would bet money on what will happen three or four or five years from now but no demographer would bet on what will happen in 2100,'' Mr. O'Connell said.
Only Dr. Charles R. Westoff, director of the Office of Population Research at Princeton Academy, said the demographic analysis used by Mr. Wattenberg ''is reasonable.'' He said birth rates were downwardly substantially in Western countries although the United states would be ''sustained by the babe boom and clearing for years to come.'' He said it was therefore ''premature'' to warn of problems in the United States.
He added, however, ''Birth rates for Western civilization have been coming down for 200 years, with the exception of the baby smash.'' Absent a surge in immigration, he said, ''nothing population growth'' was likely for the U.s. at some point in the future and, within the next 20 to 30 years, could be a serious problem for countries similar W Germany where the population is crumbling fairly rapidly.
Dr. Westoff said that where he parted company with Mr. Wattenberg was on the implications of the population trends. He also said he disagreed with Mr. Wattenberg that government policies could affect the birth rate in Western countries. Demographics Held Accurate
Carl Haub, demographer for the Population Reference Bureau, a Washington-based research system, said Mr. Wattenberg'southward demographics ''are quite accurate.'' He said that while population was really failing only in European countries, Mr. Wattenberg was pointing out ''a real prospect'' for the United states.
He said it was plausible that the current trend could be reversed. ''But it may be that society has gone through a transition and pocket-size families are hither to stay,'' he added.
Dr. Paul Demeney, vice president of the Population Council, a research grouping based in New York, said the book would accept a ''positive effect in calling attending to an issue that requires more attention than it is getting.''
''However, to run across the American scene as alarming is overstating the case,'' he said. He added that there was more than cause for business organization in European countries such equally West Germany, Denmark and Italy, where the fertility charge per unit is considerably lower.
He said declining fertility rates in Frg and France earlier Earth War II contributed to political and social insecurity that placed additional strains on those countries' fragile democracies.
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Source: https://www.nytimes.com/1987/08/23/us/warning-on-births-provokes-dissent.html
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